2008 – End of Year Review – SPRINTS

Monte-Carlo – In the concluding edition of their comprehensive review of the last twelve months of Athletics competition, statisticians A. Lennart Julin and Mirko Jalava give their impressions of the SPRINTS in 2008 – the men’s and women's 100m, 200m, 400m.

MEN
100m

Usain Bolt was known to be a rare talent many years ago when he won the 2002 World Junior Championships in Kingston over 200m distance at the age of 15 setting a then personal best of 20.58 in the heats. But what happened in 2008 was something almost unreal.

Before 2008, Bolt had raced his one and only 100m competition in July 2007 clocking a convincing 10.03 personal best. He started the 2008 season by equaling that 10.03 PB in a low key meet in Jamaica and already reached another level in his third career 100m final thundering to 9.76 result in Kingston at the start of May.

Bolt followed up with a 9.92 win at the Hampton Games and then his first World record 9.72 in New York City, in what was only in his fifth 100m race all-time. At this stage it was clear that the young Jamaican was the first pick to win the Olympics. He went on to win the Jamaican Champs in 9.85 but was then defeated in Stockholm, his last race before Beijing, by countryman Asafa Powell, the former world record holder, 9.88 to 9.89.

In addition to this important victory Powell established himself as another candidate for the Olympic gold with wins in London (9.94) and then Monaco with a 9.82 season’s best following the important Stockholm race.

Elsewhere, USA’s World championTyson Gay had set 9.77 American record in the second round of the US Olympic Trials before soaring to a wind assisted (+4.1 m/s) 9.68s win in the final. But Gay was then injured in the second round of the 200m and did not compete before the Olympics where he understandably wasn’t at his best level anymore.

The Olympics were to be a duel between the Jamaicans, but it turned out to be a one-man show. Powell was extremely convincing in the rounds, but again failed to produce his best in the final with Bolt stealing the show and Powell finishing in fifth place. Bolt’s performance in the 100m final was something else.

Having witnessed Michael Johnson’s unbelievable 200m World record in Atlanta 1996 one might have thought there was never going to be anything like that at the shorter sprint, but there was. Still only 21-years-old at the time of the final, the Jamaican commanded the race in a way rarely seen and was already raising his hands well before the finish line and yet he still crushed the World record with a 9.69 result in windless conditions.

Bolt went on to win in Zürich in 9.83 and in an excellent 9.77 into a strong headwind (-1.3 m/s) in Brussels.

Despite his Olympic disappointment Powell set a big personal best 9.72 in Lausanne and also won in 9.82 in Rieti and 9.87 at the World Athletics Final in Stuttgart.

Both Jamaican stars athletes grabbed a relay win and a World record with the Jamaican team which won with 39.10s result in Beijing Olympics.

Richard Thompson (TRI) was a surprise silver medalist in Beijing with a 9.89 personal best and Walter Dix (USA) took the bronze with another PB 9.91.

USA has 37 athletes in the world top 100 with Jamaican following as second with 10. Great Britain is third at nine.

200m

With Tyson Gay out of the picture in the 200m and Usain Bolt having done what he did in 100m there was little to say about who was going to win this event in Beijing. It was only a matter of whether Bolt would break the World record and whether he would run until the end of the race this time unlike the 100m when he intentionally slowed up.

Bolt had raced in four 200m finals prior to Beijing being very strong in all of them. The Jamaican won all of these races, with 19.83 in Ostrava in June before a 19.97 at the National Championships. He then followed with a Caribbean record of 19.67 in Athens and a 19.76 win in London in July.

In Beijing Bolt gave all he had from the start of the 200m final and was rewarded with a 19.30 World record which broke what was thought to be Michael Johnson’s impossible record of 19.32. Johnson’s huge record “only” stood for 12 years which is a bit of a surprise, but then again Bolt’s run was as excellent as was MJ’s record in 1996.

Bolt capped his 200m season winning with a 19.63 result in Lausanne and has already clocked 14 sub-20 second races being only 22-years-old now.

Rarely has the reigning Olympic champion not being rated as a gold medal favourite, but this was exactly the case for Shawn Crawford. The American had won in Athens 2004 clocking 19.79 and was close to that form in Beijing too, but much too far from Bolt. Crawford did well however finishing with a silver (19.96) medal this time. Walter Dix added another bronze in 19.98. Churandy Martina (AHO) and Wallace Spearmon who had finished second and third in the race were disqualified for lane infractions.

USA has clearly the best depth here too with 37 athletes in the world top 100. Jamaica has eight for second and Great Britain five for third place.

400m

In the men’s 400m, 2004 Olympic champion and 2005 & 2007 World champion Jeremy Wariner (USA) finally found some real competition. His opponent in this regard was fellow countryman LaShawn Merritt.

Wariner was 11-1 in head to head competition against Merritt before the 2008 season, but the 22-year-old challenged the double World Champion right from the start of the season. Having already registered a good 44.34 season’s best in Baie Mahault on 1 May, Merritt came to the Berlin Golden League meeting with a purpose. The former World Junior champion from 2004 won in Berlin with 44.03 result only missing his Osaka World Championships personal best 43.96 by 0.07s. Wariner, who also had a good 44.42 run from Carson a few weeks earlier, was a close second in 44.07.

Wariner then set a world leading 43.98 winning in Oslo, but suffered another close loss to Merritt at the Olympic Trials in Eugene, where Merritt clocked 44.00s against Wariner’s 44.20. The reigning Olympic champion then won the next two meets against Merritt in Rome (44.36 vs. 44.37) and in Paris where Wariner clocked a world leading 43.86 with Merritt second in 44.35.

In the Beijing final, Wariner decided to start extremely fast, but ‘hit a wall’ in the final straight fading badly, and finished in second place almost a second behind Merritt who won the Olympic gold in a world leading 43.75.

Wariner went on to win in Zürich in a 43.82 season’s best with Merritt second there, but then Merritt came back with another big win at the World Athletics Final in Stuttgart in 44.50 against Wariner’s 44.51.

In Beijing, David Neville completed a sweep for the Americans winning the bronze in 44.80.

USA has 36 athletes in the world top 100, Jamaica is second in this event too with 6. Australia, Bahamas, Russia and Kenya are tied for third with four.

WOMEN
100m

A quick glance at the 100m top list for 2008 confirmed that the event had experienced the improved standards we have learned are the rule in Olympic years. The No 10 mark of 10.95 is the best since 2000 (10.99) and the second best ever behind 10.92 in 1988. A more careful study of the list, however, turns up a rather extraordinary fact.

Just two nations, the USA and Jamaica, occupy all the top-15 positions on the list! The fastest runners from the other 200+ nations in the world were Kim Gevaert of Belgium and Montell Douglas of the UK tying for 16th place at 11.05 (note: Douglas 2nd best meet was 11.27!).

So rather than displaying a general improvement across the sprinting world this Olympic year only exaggerated the dominance of these two "market leading" nations. Typically the depth was only marginally better (100th in 11.36) than in any recent years.

The Olympic final, however, did not become quite the enthralling USA vs JAM dual expected. Both nations did get their complete teams (3 athletes each) into the final, but there only the Jamaicans were as strong as expected. Actually the US trio disappointed by finishing 4th, 5th and 8th not really close to challenging for the medals which instead were swept by Jamaica.

Even the fact that the final was marred by an unfair start – Edwards twitched in the blocks clearly disturbing Lee and Stewart in the adjacent lanes – didn't really affect the outcome as far as the balance between Jamaica and the USA is concerned. Typically, Stewart despite being the main victim of the unfair start still managed to rush through the field to get a share of the silver medal!

But a more careful analysis of the season leading up to the Olympics had for the astute observer already in advance provided clues that the very evenly matched World list (top-6: USA-JAM-USA-JAM-JAM-USA) was somewhat "generous" towards the USA if used as a form chart for foreseeing the Beijing outcome.

Because the 2008 pre-Olympic world List was completely dominated by what happened in two competitions ran concurrently on 27-28 June: The Olympic Trials in Eugene and Kingston respectively. Out of the top-13 marks all but three were established then and there.

However, if one took what had happened AFTER those extraordinary trials into account the US sprinters had dropped off much more markedly. Actually none of the eight US runners dipping below 11 in Eugene managed to do it afterwards (before, during or after the Olympics). Even the Olympic trio – Muna Lee, Lauren Williams and Torri Edwards – at their best form were 0.21, 0.13 and 0.24 slower post-Eugene than in Eugene!

For the Jamaicans the picture was almost the complete opposite. Their Olympic trio – Shelly Ann Fraser, Kerron Stewart and Sherone Simpson – all had several sub-11 races post-Kingston and compared to the trials Fraser actually improved 0.07 while Stewart and Simpson lost only 0.14 and 0.08.

The contrast is striking and there are two possible explanations. Either the US runners were forced to peak 100% for the trials and didn't quite manage to recover, or the times recorded in Eugene were much too flattering being more due to exceptionally favourable conditions than actual athletic capacity.

As for the first alternative it should be noted that the competition also in the Jamaican trials was quite fierce. So fierce in fact that the runner who, taking the whole year into consideration, probably should be considered No 1 at 100m in the World in 2008 – Veronica Campbell-Brown – actually finished 4th (but only 0.08 from winning!) and thereby missed competing in this event in Beijing.

Campbell-Brown won in convincing fashion all other 100m events she entered this summer and her race in Shanghai in late September must be ranked as one of the most brilliant in the history of the 100m running: Despite stumbling rather than driving out of the blocks (the gun was fired before she even had reached her set-position!) she completely demolished the opposition (including four Beijing finalists) stopping the clock at 11.01 in nil wind.

Even though the official "reaction time" of 0.567 issued is completely wrong – she left the blocks at 0.25 approximately and after half a second she was already up and running – Campbell-Brown probably lost the worth of a couple of metres on the opponents by the lack of a drive phase out of the blocks. Absolutely no one would have criticized her if she had given up after that disastrous beginning of the race, but instead she did go on and not only caught up with the others, she literally flew by them winning by almost three metres!

So taking nothing away from Shelly Ann Fraser's brilliant running in the Olympic final – lowering her PB to 10.78 and winning by well over a metre – she would probably have had to run even better to triumph had Campbell-Brown also been in the race.

200m

Statistically the event has been somewhat in the doldrums for more than a decade. Just as for the men the competitive opportunities have very few outside of the championships as almost all the one-day meets have had the 100m as the sprint event on offer.

So when USA’s Allyson Felix in 2007 demolished the opposition in the Osaka World Championships with her 21.81 it was the first time since the advent of the new millenium that anyone – except the now-disgraced doping cheat Marion Jones – dipped under 22.

The revival process continued this year as there were three sub-22 runners in 2008: Veronica Campbell-Brown, Allyson Felix and Kerron Stewart. We have to go back no less than 13 years to find the last time that happened. And Veronica Campbell Browns impressive Olympic winning performance 21.74 is the fastest 200m-time in the world since 1998 (since 1992 if Marion Jones is discounted)!

However, all this development in the upper echelon is due to only two nations, because just like the 100m this event was completely in the hands of Jamaica and the USA. Five each in the top-10 statistically and three each in the top-6 at the Olympics! And the two remaining finalists were two very experienced runners in their 30's – Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie and Cydonie Mothersill.

So the search for bright prospects for the future mainly turns up more names from the USA or Jamaica – Bianca Knight, Shelly-Ann Frazier (although she probably will focus on the 100m given her success there), and Porscha Lucas. But perhaps Russia's Yuliya Chermoshanskaya (age 22, improved from 22.94 to 22.57, missed Olympic final by just 0.06) and Aleksandra Fedoriva (age 20, from 23.29 to 22.56, reached Olympic semi) will be able to keep up their progress too?

400m

That Sanya Richards kept the position as the foremost 400m runner in the world was unquestionable. She won all but one of her 14 races and dipped under 50 seconds five times while nobody else did it more than once. But strangely enough she still has to be content with third places both on the world list and, more importantly, in the Olympic final!

So despite having dominated the event for four years, and having picked up the Golden League Jackpot once, Sanya Richards still is missing that coveted global title after getting silver in Helsinki 2005, failing in the US trials in 2007 and now just barely saving the bronze in Beijing 2008.

Somewhat worrying for Sanya Richards is also the fact that 2008 turned out to be her slowest year since 2004: Her 49.74 this season paling in comparison with her 48.92 in 2005, 48.70 in 2006 and 49.27 in 2007.

But on the other hand 2008 was in general a quite mediocre year statistically. Especially if you compare it with the recent Olympic years:

Year- 1st- 10th- 25th -Sub-50 marks
1996- 48.25- 50.32- 50.94- 30
2000- 49.11- 50.04- 50.73- 12
2004- 49.07- 50.19- 50.79- 22
2008- 49.62- 50.11- 50.98- 9

Most remarkable, especially if you compare it with the situation for the men, is the recent regress of the USA. Among the men the top-5 USA runners occupy positions No 1, 2, 3, 6 and 8, while their top-5 women are No 3, 5, 11, 18 and 20! The very discrete presence is of course also remarkable if you compare the 400m with the other female sprint events (100m and 200m).

The comparison within the event with Jamaica and Russia also turns up quite negative from the American perspective: In the top-16 we have six Russians, five Jamaicans and just three from the USA. However, that only one of the top-7 USA runners, Shana Cox, in 2008 set a new PB in this Olympic year is probably the strangest of all these worrying statistical facts.

While Sanya Richards has acquired a reputation of being a specialist in everything but championships Britain's Christine Ohuruogu is doing the complete opposite. During the last six years she has always ran a yearly best mark at her major international championship (European Juniors, Olympics, European U23's, Commonwealth, Worlds and Olympics) and taking the gold medal on the last three occasions!

The question is of course if Ohuruogu will be able to raise her game further to get into the 49-flat territory that probably will be absolutely necessary to compete for the Olympic title on home soil in 2012. Because the extraordinary low standards in the Olympic year of 2008 most likely just was a chance aberration in the history of the event.

IAAF